Some Presidential Math

All of the delegate counts, explanation of pledged vs "super" delegates, etc, are from: http://www.cnn.com/...

One HUGE assumption, that the approximate split in votes between the 3 Democratic candidates will remain constant, is made. This is a reasonable assumption at this point in time (even though it's likely it won't hold true to the end) because Edwards percentages have remained consistent. This is an unreasonable assumption because, while Clinton and Obama are favored in different states, the polls so far have been TERRIBLE at predicting which way the independents will break. (They seem to "all" break the same way in any given state.) But follow the logic and you'll see that it will take a pretty big change to make any difference in the final results.

Still interested?

So, here ya go: There are 4049 total delegates scheduled to be at the Democratic nominating convention. Of these delegates 3253 are "pledged" meaning they're won through voting, the other 796 are "super" delegates, "high ranking party members" who's primary function is ostensibly to prevent a "hung jury", but in fact represent "the Democratic establishment". (I won't swear to this, but I think this excludes Florida and Michigan. The math is still instructive.) This means that the winning candidate will need 2025 or more delegates.

Tonight, Clinton has: 48 pledged + 184 super = 232 delegates.
Obama: 63 pledged + 95 super = 158 delegates.
Edwards: 26 pledged + 36 super = 62 delegates.

By normalizing the vote ((individually won delegates x total delegates available) / total delegates won by all so far) a projection of final delegate counts is possible. Like this:

Clinton: 1140 pledged + 465 super = 1605 delegates.
Obama: 1496 pledged + 240 super = 1736 delegates.
Edwards: 617 pledged + 91 super = 708 delegates.

(You can check my math. Add up the total pledged, total super, or re-add the delegate totals. You'll get the same numbers, 3253, 796, and 4049 total)

Interesting result, because NO candidate has enough votes to be the nominee. It's a brokered convention with Edwards holding the deciding "vote".

But, you may say, "what if the Democratic establishment throws all the super delegates to Clinton or Obama?"

Good question!

Edwards would still have his 617 delegates.
Clinton (if she got them) would have 1140 + 796 = 1936
Obama (if he got them) would have 1496 + 796 = 2292

So, in this "all or nothing" scenario, if "the establishment" wants Clinton, they can't have her. If they want Obama, they can. Now's where those assumptions get interesting.

2292 - 2025 = 267

That's how many votes Obama can "spare" if all the assumptions DON'T hold true.

But what if they don't? If just the Edwards' superdelegates stick with him, Obama's down to 705 (796 - 91) superdelegates, or 176 "votes to spare". If some of Clinton's stick with her, a likely scenario, that margin would grow even smaller.

Then there's the delegate count, so far. Obama's huge win in SC was in a state with an inordinately large black population that voted for him at the 80% level. Even though they're not counted, Clinton won just as big in Florida, which has a more balanced population. She's currently leading in California, another state with a big delegate count. Then there's the "all or nothing" states, which will impact the Edwards totals. Of course, all the nastiness between the two major candiates could shift some votes Edwards' way...

If I was a betting man, I'd bet that either McCain or Romney will lose a VERY close election to Barack Obama, who has already promised the AG spot to John Edwards before the election.

I could live with that.